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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest upset.

Yet the latest field is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and longtime strugglers rising collectively. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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